October 23, 2018 - Tuesday
Wave... Goodbye? Early Voting Bucks Dem Trends
Is it a blue wave? A purple wave? A trickle -- a tsunami? In 15 days we'll find out. But one thing we do know: Republicans are a lot more energized than people gave them credit for.
Some polls, including this FiveThirtyEight projection, still have the Democrats winning the U.S. House, but early voting trends make it clear: you can't count conservatives out. "Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven-closely watched states," according to new info from NBC News and TargetSmart. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas, the data all points to "robust enthusiasm" on the conservative side -- and not a moment too soon.
In key Senate races like Arizona and Florida, Republicans had anywhere from a four- to 10-point early-voting advantage. Out in Texas, where Senator Ted Cruz is in a tight race with Democrat Rep. Beto O'Rourke, people were waiting in hour-long lines that snaked around buildings for blocks. Others had camped out at the Houston locations before they even opened. By yesterday, pollsters estimate, more than five million votes had already been cast either early or by absentee.
Still, though, neither side can take anything for granted. Two weeks out, an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey still gives Democrats the lead, but by an incredibly shrinking margin. Anything, we learned in 2016, is possible. Yesterday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) joined me on "Washington Watch" and talked about what he's seen in states around America. "When I tour the country, I see this new enthusiasm... After watching what's happened with [Brett] Kavanaugh, the way they treated Justice Kavanaugh, using politics over the process -- not putting people first -- [there's] a frustration out there. And I've seen the intensity gap close. I see some real excitement in some of these races."
That said, McCarthy pointed out, "History is against us. History says that the Democrats should win the House because the party in power normally loses 32 seats. But I don't see that being the case. I see a new movement going forward that hopefully we can really achieve really big things. But think about the things we've achieved in the last two years. This is the strongest economy we've [had] the last 50 years -- by far."
And no one can underestimate the effect that the Left's mob mentality is having on conservatives around the nation, as we watch Republicans being attacked, threatened, harassed, vandalized, and even run off the road! The FRC Action PAC, the Faith, Family, and Freedom Fund, used those intimidation tactics as the focus of its latest ads, airing in some key battleground states. To watch, click the video below.